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Despite the recent attention to DeepFakes, one of the most prevalent ways to mislead audiences on social media is the use of unaltered images in a new but false context. We propose a new method that automatically highlights out-of-context image and text pairs, for assisting fact-checkers. Our key insight is to leverage the grounding of images with text to distinguish out-of-context scenarios that cannot be disambiguated with language alone. We propose a self-supervised training strategy where we only need a set of captioned images. At train time, our method learns to selectively align individual objects in an image with textual claims, without explicit supervision. At test time, we check if both captions correspond to the same object(s) in the image but are semantically different, which allows us to make fairly accurate out-of-context predictions. Our method achieves 85% out-of-context detection accuracy. To facilitate benchmarking of this task, we create a large-scale dataset of 200K images with 450K textual captions from a variety of news websites, blogs, and social media posts
Automatic medical text simplification can assist providers with patient-friendly communication and make medical texts more accessible, thereby improving health literacy. But curating a quality corpus for this task requires the supervision of medical experts. In this work, we present Med-EASi (Medical dataset for Elaborative and Abstractive Simplification), a uniquely crowdsourced and finely annotated dataset for supervised simplification of short medical texts. Its expert-layman-AI collaborative annotations facilitate controllability over text simplification by marking four kinds of textual transformations: elaboration, replacement, deletion, and insertion. To learn medical text simplification, we fine-tune T5-large with four different styles of input-output combinations, leading to two control-free and two controllable versions of the model. We add two types of controllability into text simplification, by using a multi-angle training approach: position-aware, which uses in-place annotated inputs and outputs, and position-agnostic, where the model only knows the contents to be edited, but not their positions. Our results show that our fine-grained annotations improve learning compared to the unannotated baseline. Furthermore, our position-aware control enhances the model's ability to generate better simplification than the position-agnostic version. The data and code are available at https://github.com/Chandrayee/CTRL-SIMP.
Drug dosing is an important application of AI, which can be formulated as a Reinforcement Learning (RL) problem. In this paper, we identify two major challenges of using RL for drug dosing: delayed and prolonged effects of administering medications, which break the Markov assumption of the RL framework. We focus on prolongedness and define PAE-POMDP (Prolonged Action Effect-Partially Observable Markov Decision Process), a subclass of POMDPs in which the Markov assumption does not hold specifically due to prolonged effects of actions. Motivated by the pharmacology literature, we propose a simple and effective approach to converting drug dosing PAE-POMDPs into MDPs, enabling the use of the existing RL algorithms to solve such problems. We validate the proposed approach on a toy task, and a challenging glucose control task, for which we devise a clinically-inspired reward function. Our results demonstrate that: (1) the proposed method to restore the Markov assumption leads to significant improvements over a vanilla baseline; (2) the approach is competitive with recurrent policies which may inherently capture the prolonged affect of actions; (3) it is remarkably more time and memory efficient than the recurrent baseline and hence more suitable for real-time dosing control systems; and (4) it exhibits favourable qualitative behavior in our policy analysis.
Modeling and shaping how information spreads through a network is a major research topic in network analysis. While initially the focus has been mostly on efficiency, recently fairness criteria have been taken into account in this setting. Most work has focused on the maximin criteria however, and thus still different groups can receive very different shares of information. In this work we propose to consider fairness as a notion to be guaranteed by an algorithm rather than as a criterion to be maximized. To this end, we propose three optimization problems that aim at maximizing the overall spread while enforcing strict levels of demographic parity fairness via constraints (either ex-post or ex-ante). The level of fairness hence becomes a user choice rather than a property to be observed upon output. We study this setting from various perspectives. First, we prove that the cost of introducing demographic parity can be high in terms of both overall spread and computational complexity, i.e., the price of fairness may be unbounded for all three problems and optimal solutions are hard to compute, in some case even approximately or when fairness constraints may be violated. For one of our problems, we still design an algorithm with both constant approximation factor and fairness violation. We also give two heuristics that allow the user to choose the tolerated fairness violation. By means of an extensive experimental study, we show that our algorithms perform well in practice, that is, they achieve the best demographic parity fairness values. For certain instances we additionally even obtain an overall spread comparable to the most efficient algorithms that come without any fairness guarantee, indicating that the empirical price of fairness may actually be small when using our algorithms.
Fairness in influence maximization has been a very active research topic recently. Most works in this context study the question of how to find seeding strategies (deterministic or probabilistic) such that nodes or communities in the network get their fair share of coverage. Different fairness criteria have been used in this context. All these works assume that the entity that is spreading the information has an inherent interest in spreading the information fairly, otherwise why would they want to use the developed fair algorithms? This assumption may however be flawed in reality -- the spreading entity may be purely efficiency-oriented. In this paper we propose to study two optimization problems with the goal to modify the network structure by adding links in such a way that efficiency-oriented information spreading becomes automatically fair. We study the proposed optimization problems both from a theoretical and experimental perspective, that is, we give several hardness and hardness of approximation results, provide efficient algorithms for some special cases, and more importantly provide heuristics for solving one of the problems in practice. In our experimental study we then first compare the proposed heuristics against each other and establish the most successful one. In a second experiment, we then show that our approach can be very successful in practice. That is, we show that already after adding a few edges to the networks the greedy algorithm that purely maximizes spread surpasses all fairness-tailored algorithms in terms of ex-post fairness. Maybe surprisingly, we even show that our approach achieves ex-post fairness values that are comparable or even better than the ex-ante fairness values of the currently most efficient algorithms that optimize ex-ante fairness.
Community health workers (CHWs) play a crucial role in the last mile delivery of essential health services to underserved populations in low-income countries. Many nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) provide training and support to enable CHWs to deliver health services to their communities, with no charge to the recipients of the services. This includes monetary compensation for the work that CHWs perform, which is broken down into a series of well defined tasks. In this work, we partner with a NGO D-Tree International to design a fair monetary compensation scheme for tasks performed by CHWs in the semi-autonomous region of Zanzibar in Tanzania, Africa. In consultation with stakeholders, we interpret fairness as the equal opportunity to earn, which means that each CHW has the opportunity to earn roughly the same total payment over a given T month period, if the CHW reacts to the incentive scheme almost rationally. We model this problem as a reward design problem for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulation for the CHWs’ earning. There is a need for the mechanism to be simple so that it is understood by the CHWs, thus, we explore linear and piecewise linear rewards in the CHWs’ measured units of work. We solve this design problem via a novel policy-reward gradient result. Our experiments using two real world parameters from the ground provide evidence of reasonable incentive output by our scheme.
This paper presents a large anonymized dataset of homelessness alongside insights into the data-driven rehabilitation of homeless people. The dataset was gathered by a large non-profit organization working on rehabilitating the homeless for twenty years. This is the first dataset that we know of that contains rich information on thousands of homeless individuals seeking rehabilitation. We show how data analysis can help to make the rehabilitation of homeless people more effective and successful. Thus, we hope this paper alerts the data science community to the problem of homelessness.
Counterfactuals are often described as 'retrospective,' focusing on hypothetical alternatives to a realized past. This description relates to an often implicit assumption about the structure and stability of exogenous variables in the system being modeled --- an assumption that is reasonable in many settings where counterfactuals are used. In this work, we consider cases where we might reasonably make a different assumption about exogenous variables; namely, that the exogenous noise terms of each unit do exhibit some unit-specific structure and/or stability. This leads us to a different use of counterfactuals --- a forward-looking rather than retrospective counterfactual. We introduce "counterfactual treatment choice," a type of treatment choice problem that motivates using forward-looking counterfactuals. We then explore how mismatches between interventional versus forward-looking counterfactual approaches to treatment choice, consistent with different assumptions about exogenous noise, can lead to counterintuitive results.
Anti-money laundering (AML) systems play a critical role in safeguarding global economy. As money laundering is considered as one of the top group crimes, there is a crucial need to discover money laundering sub-network behind a particular money laundering transaction for a robust AML system. However, existing rule-based methods for money laundering sub-network discovery is heavily based on domain knowledge and may lag behind the modus operandi of launderers. Therefore, in this work, we first address the money laundering sub-network discovery problem with a neural network based approach, and propose an AML framework AMAP equipped with an adaptive sub-network proposer. In particular, we design an adaptive sub-network proposer guided by a supervised contrastive loss to discriminate money laundering transactions from massive benign transactions. We conduct extensive experiments on real-word datasets in AliPay of Ant Group. The result demonstrates the effectiveness of our AMAP in both money laundering transaction detection and money laundering sub-network discovering. The learned framework which yields money laundering sub-network from massive transaction network leads to a more comprehensive risk coverage and a deeper insight to money laundering strategies.
Many policies in the US are determined locally, e.g., at the county-level. Local policy regimes provide flexibility between regions, but may become less effective in the presence of geographic spillovers, where populations circumvent local restrictions by traveling to less restricted regions nearby. Due to the endogenous nature of policymaking, there have been few opportunities to reliably estimate causal spillover effects or evaluate their impact on local policies. In this work, we identify a novel setting and develop a suitable methodology that allow us to make unconfounded estimates of spillover effects of local policies. Focusing on California’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy, we leverage how county-level mobility restrictions were deterministically set by public COVID-19 severity statistics, enabling a regression discontinuity design framework to estimate spillovers between counties. We estimate these effects using a mobility network with billions of timestamped edges and find significant spillover movement, with larger effects in retail, eating places, and gyms. Contrasting local and global policy regimes, our spillover estimates suggest that county-level restrictions are only 54% as effective as statewide restrictions at reducing mobility. However, an intermediate strategy of macro-county restrictions---where we optimize county partitions by solving a minimum k-cut problem on a graph weighted by our spillover estimates---can recover over 90% of statewide mobility reductions, while maintaining substantial flexibility between counties.
Epidemic models are powerful tools in understanding infectious disease. However, as they increase in size and complexity, they can quickly become computationally intractable. Recent progress in modelling methodology has shown that surrogate models can be used to emulate complex epidemic models with a high-dimensional parameter space. We show that deep sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models can serve as accurate surrogates for complex epidemic models with sequence based model parameters, effectively replicating seasonal and long-term transmission dynamics. Once trained, our surrogate can predict scenarios a several thousand times faster than the original model, making them ideal for policy exploration. We demonstrate that replacing a traditional epidemic model with a learned simulator facilitates robust Bayesian inference.
Class-incremental continual learning is a core step towards developing artificial intelligence systems that can continuously adapt to changes in the environment by learning new concepts without forgetting those previously learned. This is especially needed in the medical domain where continually learning from new incoming data is required to classify an expanded set of diseases. In this work, we focus on how old knowledge can be leveraged to learn new classes without catastrophic forgetting. We propose a framework that comprises of two main components: (1) a dynamic architecture with expanding representations to preserve previously learned features and accommodate new features; and (2) a training procedure alternating between two objectives to balance the learning of new features while maintaining the model’s performance on old classes. Experiment results on multiple medical datasets show that our solution is able to achieve superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines in terms of class accuracy and forgetting.
Change detection (CD) aims to find the difference between two images at different times and output a change map to represent whether the region has changed or not. To achieve a better result in generating the change map, many State-of-The-Art (SoTA) methods design a deep learning model that has a powerful discriminative ability. However, these methods still get lower performance because they ignore spatial information and scaling changes between objects, giving rise to blurry boundaries. In addition to these, they also neglect the interactive information of two different images. To alleviate these problems, we propose our network, the Scale and Relation-Aware Siamese Network (SARAS-Net) to deal with this issue. In this paper, three modules are proposed that include relation-aware, scale-aware, and cross-transformer to tackle the problem of scene change detection more effectively. To verify our model, we tested three public datasets, including LEVIR-CD, WHU-CD, and DSFIN, and obtained SoTA accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/f64051041/SARAS-Net.
Knowledge tracing (KT) is a crucial technique to predict students’ future performance by observing their historical learning processes. Due to the powerful representation ability of deep neural networks, remarkable progress has been made by using deep learning techniques to solve the KT problem. The majority of existing approaches rely on the homogeneous question assumption that questions have equivalent contributions if they share the same set of knowledge components. Unfortunately, this assumption is inaccurate in real-world educational scenarios. Furthermore, it is very challenging to interpret the prediction results from the existing deep learning based KT models. Therefore, in this paper, we present QIKT, a question-centric interpretable KT model to address the above challenges. The proposed QIKT approach explicitly models students’ knowledge state variations at a fine-grained level with question-sensitive cognitive representations that are jointly learned from a question-centric knowledge acquisition module and a question-centric problem solving module. Meanwhile, the QIKT utilizes an item response theory based prediction layer to generate interpretable prediction results. The proposed QIKT model is evaluated on three public real-world educational datasets. The results demonstrate that our approach is superior on the KT prediction task, and it outperforms a wide range of deep learning based KT models in terms of prediction accuracy with better model interpretability. To encourage reproducible results, we have provided all the datasets and code at https://pykt.org/.
The networked-loan is major financing support for Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) in some developing countries. But external shocks may weaken the financial networks' robustness; an accidental default may spread across the network and collapse the whole network. Thus, predicting the critical firms in networked-loans to stem contagion risk and prevent potential systemic financial crises is of crucial significance to the long-term health of inclusive finance and sustainable economic development. Existing approaches in the banking industry dismiss the contagion risk across loan networks and need extensive knowledge with sophisticated financial expertise. Regarding the issues, we propose a novel approach to predict critical firms for stemming contagion risk in the bank industry with deep reinforcement learning integrated with high-order graph message-passing networks. We demonstrate that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines significantly on the dataset from a large commercial bank. Moreover, we also conducted empirical studies on the real-world loan dataset for risk mitigation. The proposed approach enables financial regulators and risk managers to better track and understands contagion and systemic risk in networked-loans. The superior performance also represents a paradigm shift in addressing the modern challenges in financing support of MSMEs and sustainable economic development.
Model-based attacks can infer training data information from deep neural network models. These attacks heavily depend on the attacker's knowledge of the application domain, e.g., using it to determine the auxiliary data for model-inversion attacks. However, attackers may not know what the model is used for in practice. We propose a generative adversarial network (GAN) based method to explore likely or similar domains of a target model -- the model domain inference (MDI) attack. For a given target (classification) model, we assume that the attacker knows nothing but the input and output formats and can use the model to derive the prediction for any input in the desired form. Our basic idea is to use the target model to affect a GAN training process for a candidate domain's dataset that is easy to obtain. We find that the target model may distort the training procedure less if the domain is more similar to the target domain. We then measure the distortion level with the distance between GAN-generated datasets, which can be used to rank candidate domains for the target model. Our experiments show that the auxiliary dataset from an MDI top-ranked domain can effectively boost the result of model-inversion attacks.
This paper proposes a physics-guided neural network model to predict crop yield and maintain the fairness over space. Failures to preserve the spatial fairness in predicted maps of crop yields can result in biased policies and intervention strategies in the distribution of assistance or subsidies in supporting individuals at risk. Existing methods for fairness enforcement are not designed for capturing the complex physical processes that underlie the crop growing process, and thus are unable to produce good predictions over large regions under different weather conditions and soil properties. More importantly, the fairness is often degraded when existing methods are applied to different years due to the change of weather conditions and farming practices. To address these issues, we propose a physics-guided neural network model, which leverages the physical knowledge from existing physics-based models to guide the extraction of representative physical information and discover the temporal data shift across years. In particular, we use a reweighting strategy to discover the relationship between training years and testing years using the physics-aware representation. Then the physics-guided neural network will be refined via a bi-level optimization process based on the reweighted fairness objective. The proposed method has been evaluated using real county-level crop yield data and simulated data produced by a physics-based model. The results demonstrate that this method can significantly improve the predictive performance and preserve the spatial fairness when generalized to different years.
Sharing medical reports is essential for patient-centered care. A recent line of work has focused on automatically generating reports with NLP methods. However, different audiences have different purposes when writing/reading medical reports – for example, healthcare professionals care more about pathology, whereas patients are more concerned with the diagnosis ("Is there any abnormality?"). The expectation gap results in a common situation where patients find their medical reports to be ambiguous and therefore unsure about the next steps. In this work, we explore the audience expectation gap in healthcare and summarize common ambiguities that lead patients to be confused about their diagnosis into three categories: medical jargon, contradictory findings, and misleading grammatical errors. Based on our analysis, we define a disambiguation rewriting task to regenerate an input to be unambiguous while preserving information about the original content. We further propose a rewriting algorithm based on contrastive pretraining and perturbation-based rewriting. In addition, we create two datasets, OpenI-Annotated based on chest reports and VA-Annotated based on general medical reports, with available binary labels for ambiguity and abnormality presence annotated by radiology specialists. Experimental results on these datasets show that our proposed algorithm effectively rewrites input sentences in a less ambiguous way with high content fidelity. Our code and annotated data will be released to facilitate future research.
Automatic diagnosis systems aim to probe for symptoms (i.e., symptom checking) and diagnose disease through multi-turn conversations with patients. Most previous works formulate it as a sequential decision process and use reinforcement learning (RL) to decide whether to inquire about symptoms or make a diagnosis. However, these RL-based methods heavily rely on the elaborate reward function and usually suffer from an unstable training process and low data efficiency. In this work, we propose an effective multi-task framework for automatic diagnosis called MTDiag. We first reformulate symptom checking as a multi-label classification task by direct supervision. Each medical dialogue is equivalently converted into multiple samples for classification, which can also help alleviate the data scarcity problem. Furthermore, we design a multi-task learning strategy to guide the symptom checking procedure with disease information and further utilize contrastive learning to better distinguish symptoms between diseases. Extensive experimental results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on four public datasets with 1.7%~3.1% improvement in disease diagnosis, demonstrating the superiority of the proposed method. Additionally, our model is now deployed in an online medical consultant system as an assistant tool for real-life doctors.
The concept of walkable urban development has gained increased attention due to its public health, economic, and environmental sustainability benefits. Unfortunately, land zoning and historic under-investment have resulted in spatial inequality in walkability and social inequality among residents. We tackle the problem of Walkability Optimization through the lens of combinatorial optimization. The task is to select locations in which additional amenities (e.g., grocery stores, schools, restaurants) can be allocated to improve resident access via walking while taking into account existing amenities and providing multiple options (e.g., for restaurants). To this end, we derive Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) and Constraint Programming (CP) models. Moreover, we show that the problem’s objective function is submodular in special cases, which motivates an efficient greedy heuristic. We conduct a case study on 31 underserved neighborhoods in the City of Toronto, Canada. MILP finds the best solutions in most scenarios but does not scale well with network size. The greedy algorithm scales well and finds high-quality solutions. Our empirical evaluation shows that neighbourhoods with low walkability have a great potential for transformation into pedestrian-friendly neighbourhoods by strategically placing new amenities. Allocating 3 additional grocery stores, schools, and restaurants can improve the “WalkScore” by more than 50 points (on a scale of 100) for 4 neighbourhoods and reduce the walking distances to amenities for 75% of all residential locations to 10 minutes for all amenity types. Our code and paper appendix are available at https://github.com/khalil-research/walkability.
Heating and cooling systems in buildings account for 31% of global energy use, much of which are regulated by Rule Based Controllers (RBCs) that neither maximise energy efficiency nor minimise emissions by interacting optimally with the grid. Control via Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been shown to significantly improve building energy efficiency, but existing solutions require access to building-specific simulators or data that cannot be expected for every building in the world. In response, we show it is possible to obtain emission-reducing policies without such knowledge a priori–a paradigm we call zero-shot building control. We combine ideas from system identification and model-based RL to create PEARL (Probabilistic Emission-Abating Reinforcement Learning) and show that a short period of active exploration is all that is required to build a performant model. In experiments across three varied building energy simulations, we show PEARL outperforms an existing RBC once, and popular RL baselines in all cases, reducing building emissions by as much as 31% whilst maintaining thermal comfort. Our source code is available online via: https://enjeeneer.io/projects/pearl/.
Traffic congestion event prediction is an important yet challenging task in intelligent transportation systems. Many existing works about traffic prediction integrate various temporal encoders and graph convolution networks (GCNs), called spatio-temporal graph-based neural networks, which focus on predicting dense variables such as flow, speed and demand in time snapshots, but they can hardly forecast the traffic congestion events that are sparsely distributed on the continuous time axis. In recent years, neural point process (NPP) has emerged as an appropriate framework for event prediction in continuous time scenarios. However, most conventional works about NPP cannot model the complex spatio-temporal dependencies and congestion evolution patterns. To address these limitations, we propose a spatio-temporal graph neural point process framework, named STGNPP for traffic congestion event prediction. Specifically, we first design the spatio-temporal graph learning module to fully capture the long-range spatio-temporal dependencies from the historical traffic state data along with the road network. The extracted spatio-temporal hidden representation and congestion event information are then fed into a continuous gated recurrent unit to model the congestion evolution patterns. In particular, to fully exploit the periodic information, we also improve the intensity function calculation of the point process with a periodic gated mechanism. Finally, our model simultaneously predicts the occurrence time and duration of the next congestion. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance in comparison to existing state-of-the-art approaches.
In this paper, we examine computational approaches for measuring the "fairness" of image tagging systems, finding that they cluster into five distinct categories, each with its own analytic foundation. We also identify a range of normative concerns that are often collapsed under the terms "unfairness," "bias," or even "discrimination" when discussing problematic cases of image tagging. Specifically, we identify four types of representational harms that can be caused by image tagging systems, providing concrete examples of each. We then consider how different computational measurement approaches map to each of these types, demonstrating that there is not a one-to-one mapping. Our findings emphasize that no single measurement approach will be definitive and that it is not possible to infer from the use of a particular measurement approach which type of harm was intended to be measured. Lastly, equipped with this more granular understanding of the types of representational harms that can be caused by image tagging systems, we show that attempts to mitigate some of these types of harms may be in tension with one another.
Modern power systems will have to face difficult challenges in the years to come: frequent blackouts in urban areas caused by high peaks of electricity demand, grid instability exacerbated by the intermittency of renewable generation, and climate change on a global scale amplified by increasing carbon emissions. While current practices are growingly inadequate, the pathway of artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to widespread adoption is hindered by missing aspects of trustworthiness. The CityLearn Challenge is an exemplary opportunity for researchers from multi-disciplinary fields to investigate the potential of AI to tackle these pressing issues within the energy domain, collectively modeled as a reinforcement learning (RL) task. Multiple real-world challenges faced by contemporary RL techniques are embodied in the problem formulation. In this paper, we present a novel method using the solution function of optimization as policies to compute the actions for sequential decision-making, while notably adapting the parameters of the optimization model from online observations. Algorithmically, this is achieved by an evolutionary algorithm under a novel trajectory-based guidance scheme. Formally, the global convergence property is established. Our agent ranked first in the latest 2021 CityLearn Challenge, being able to achieve superior performance in almost all metrics while maintaining some key aspects of interpretability.
In 2020, maternal mortality in India was estimated to be as high as 130 deaths per 100K live births, nearly twice the UN's target. To improve health outcomes, the non-profit ARMMAN sends automated voice messages to expecting and new mothers across India. However, 38% of mothers stop listening to these calls, missing critical preventative care information. To improve engagement, ARMMAN employs health workers to intervene by making service calls, but workers can only call a fraction of the 100K enrolled mothers. Partnering with ARMMAN, we model the problem of allocating limited interventions across mothers as a restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB), where the realities of large scale and model uncertainty present key new technical challenges. We address these with GROUPS, a double oracle–based algorithm for robust planning in RMABs with scalable grouped arms. Robustness over grouped arms requires several methodological advances. First, to adversarially select stochastic group dynamics, we develop a new method to optimize Whittle indices over transition probability intervals. Second, to learn group-level RMAB policy best responses to these adversarial environments, we introduce a weighted index heuristic. Third, we prove a key theoretical result that planning over grouped arms achieves the same minimax regret--optimal strategy as planning over individual arms, under a technical condition. Finally, using real-world data from ARMMAN, we show that GROUPS produces robust policies that reduce minimax regret by up to 50%, halving the number of preventable missed voice messages to connect more mothers with life-saving maternal health information.